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India, a rising power against China

Since December 1, India has taken the lead in the G20.During his speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that he intended to use this opportunity to challenge Western predominance and rebalance the international system in favour of the South. India co-founded the so-called “BRICS” group of Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa to counter the influence of international governance structures dominated by the US and Europe.

In the midst of the prevailing economic slump, India is an exception. In a context where the United States and Europe are threatened with recession, India is experiencing an insolent economic health: the IMF forecasts a 6.8% increase in Indian GDP in 2022, twice as fast as the world economy, and a further growth of 6% next year. Even better, India has just taken away from its former colonizer, the United Kingdom, the place of 5th world economic power. And it could rise ahead of Germany as early as 2027 and then third in the world before 2030, just behind the United States and China.

This dynamism of India is explained by its demographic power which will propel it, according to the UN, to the rank of the most populous country on the planet in the middle of next year with 1.43 billion inhabitants. This makes some say that India will gradually become the world’s largest pool of labor. The country attracts foreign companies, and in addition to a very cheap and well-trained workforce, it also has the advantage of offering an English-speaking environment, a strong digital specialization, a move upmarket of its industry and a desire for reforms.

India also has a diaspora of over 28 million people who transfer $90 billion a year to the country.

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